When Bitcoin (BTC 0.17%) dipped below $60,000 at the start of May, it marked a two-month low. Crypto investors were understandably concerned, especially given all the hoopla surrounding the Bitcoin halving that had taken place just two weeks earlier. The sentiment was not so much fear as disbelief: This is not supposed to be happening!
As Bitcoin's price has stabilized to the $65,000 level, some of that concern has dissipated. But Bitcoin is still 10% below its all-time high of $73,750 from mid-March. So is this recent dip in Bitcoin's price a buying opportunity or not?
The return of Bitcoin ETF inflows
Arguably, the launch of the new spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) at the start of January has been the single biggest factor pushing Bitcoin to new highs this year. They attracted a massive influx of new investor money for nearly three months. So when investor inflows to these ETFs began to slow in late April and early May, that was a warning signal to the market about the future direction of Bitcoin's price.
That's why the sudden return of investor inflows to the spot Bitcoin ETFs in mid-May is such a positive signal. The latest numbers are now out, and it looks like money is once more flowing into the Bitcoin ETFs. On May 15, Bitcoin ETFs reported their single-best daily influx in nearly two weeks. Of course, this might just be a short-term blip.
But there's good reason to think this is part of a longer-term dynamic, in which investors decide to allocate a greater percentage of their portfolios to Bitcoin.
The arrival of new institutional investors
At just about the same time that investor inflows began to slow, BlackRock, the issuer of the iShares Bitcoin Trust, suggested that a new wave of institutional investors would soon begin to allocate a percentage of their portfolios to Bitcoin ETFs. BlackRock particularly singled out pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, and endowments as the most likely candidates to buy Bitcoin.
Image source: Getty Images.
At the time, it sounded like just a lot of bluster, but one can't deny that several big-name institutional investors have recently announced large positions in the new Bitcoin ETFs. The latest name is the State of Wisconsin Investment Board (SWIB), which recently announced an investment of $100 million into the iShares Bitcoin Trust. SWIB manages over $156 billion in assets, including the holdings of the Wisconsin Retirement System, the State Investment Fund, and other state trust funds.
That's huge news for Bitcoin, because pension funds are very different animals from hedge funds. They have a fiduciary duty to protect the value of their investments, and aren't going to be wading into the deep end of a dangerous pool infested with sharks. So keep your eye out for similar types of traditionally risk-averse institutional investors putting their money into Bitcoin. Over time, steady buying from these types of institutional investors should help push up the price of Bitcoin.
The long-term outlook for Bitcoin
Best of all, the long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains intact. Despite all the economic warning signals, Wall Street investment firm Bernstein actually doubled down on its earlier price forecast for Bitcoin. Bernstein is expecting a price of $100,000 for Bitcoin later this year and $150,000 by the end of 2025.
Moreover, as Cathie Wood of Ark Invest pointed out last November, Bitcoin is one of those rare assets that can perform well in both inflationary and deflationary environments. Bitcoin can be a robust risk-on asset when markets are roaring ahead, as well as a strong risk-off asset when inflation and recession fears are running rampant.
At the end of the day, Bitcoin's unique risk-reward profile is what makes it so attractive as a long-term investment. It has significant upside potential, combined with a measure of downside protection as well. For that reason, I'm not concerned by its recent dip in price. The current situation is a unique opportunity to buy Bitcoin while it is still undervalued.
