Corsair Gaming (CRSR 0.27%) is navigating through a very challenging environment. The combination of supply disruptions, inflation, and challenging year-over-year growth comparisons with the stay-at-home environment in early 2021 has created a perfect storm of declining revenue and profits.
Year to date, the stock price has fallen 26%, which doesn't seem that bad considering that revenue has dropped 34% through the first half of the year. Falling revenue has Wall Street worried about the health of the gaming market, which has sent the stock down to deep value territory.
Looking across the industry, interest in video games is still strong. Top game producers Electronic Arts and Take-Two Interactive have reported healthy numbers with respect to their top games recently. Most telling is that viewership on Amazon's Twitch, where people can watch esport events and others play video games, is still holding at the heightened levels from 2020.
The root cause of Corsair's problems goes back to supply shortages and low consumer appetite to pay higher prices for PC components. Supply shortages have caused massive inflation in selling prices for graphics processing units (GPUs), which has kept many gamers from buying new parts to upgrade their gaming rigs. This has hurt sales of system components from Corsair Gaming, such as memory chips, that are often upgraded along with a new GPU.
During the company's second-quarter earnings call, management mentioned upcoming new products that could help the business return to growth entering 2023. Looking ahead to the next five years and beyond, investors could be looking at big gains off these lows once the issues impacting sales start to normalize.
New products could stimulate a Corsair turnaround
Corsair Gaming is not immune to a recession, but one thing going for it is that most of its business is targeted at the premium market for gaming peripherals and system components. Players shopping for quality products are not going to be as price sensitive.
Corsair recently unveiled a new premium gaming notebook -- the A1600 Voyager streaming laptop -- in partnership with Advanced Micro Devices. The Voyager is launching at a retail price of $2,699, but even at that steep price, management expects to drive strong sales of its pre-built gaming platforms once shipments begin in the third quarter.
In the past, most of Corsair's sales have come from players upgrading their PCs, but the gaming laptop market has been the fastest-growing area in gaming platforms. The Voyager is an opportunity to further penetrate this attractive opportunity and perhaps welcome new enthusiasts to the hobby.
Partnering with AMD, a leading supplier of gaming hardware chips, could help Corsair gain share of the gaming laptop market. Over the next 10 years, the market value of gaming laptops is expected to increase 4.5% per year to reach $18.4 billion.
Source: Future Market Insights, Statista.
The growth in gaming laptops corresponds with the growing interest in video games. IDG Consulting estimates that the video game industry should grow from $221 billion in 2021 to $282 billion by 2026.
Looking ahead to next year, the health of the gaming market and the launching of new products have management feeling optimistic. During the Q2 earnings call, founder and CEO Andy Paul said that spending is higher now than before the pandemic in almost every category. "This all leads to [our] being very encouraged for an exciting 2023 and continued growth," Paul said.
Corsair stock offers a tempting value
There are several reasons to believe Corsair is navigating through the worst right now and that better days are right around the corner. Next year could see a return to growth, but that still depends on how long the current headwinds with inflation and supply shortages linger in the months ahead. No one knows for certain when those problems will end.
Management expects full-year revenue to be down approximately 24% over 2021. This is lower than the previous forecast issued in the first quarter earnings report. That moving target reflects excess inventory that is still in the retail channel, which could take some time to sell through before Corsair can return to growth.
The stock is currently 69% off its all-time high, which points to lots of upside once business improves. At a price-to-earnings ratio of 10 based on 2021 adjusted earnings, the stock offers tremendous value. If you're patient enough to hold shares for at least five years, I believe there are good chances of doubling your money.
