Why Natural Disasters Aren't Discouraging People From Moving to These 5 States

Like going into a dark attic to investigate a mysterious noise, Americans appear to be walking toward danger rather than away. But it's not just in slasher movies that people make surprising decisions. More Americans are moving into areas prone to natural disasters than moving out, according to Redfin. Let's look at where more Americans are choosing to call home and why they're making the move. 

1. Florida

According to Redfin, Lee County on the Gulf Coast saw 60,000 more people move in than move out over the past two years. That's the largest increase among the 306 high-flood-risk counties analyzed. Despite the high probability of severe flooding, builders continue to put up new homes, and buyers continue to get mortgage loans and snap them up as quickly as they're built. 

Interestingly, Redfin reports that many of the folks who moved to Florida from the Northeast or West during the pandemic are now leaving. However, they're quickly being replaced by new out-of-staters who dream of living near the coast. 

2. Texas

Just north of Dallas is Collin County, home to Plano. Collin County has welcomed 61,000 more residents than have left over the past two years. Meanwhile, Lee County, in southeast Central Texas, had a net gain of 57,000 residents. 

Climate-change modeling from the nonprofit First Street Foundation shows that Collin County has major risks from wildfires and severe winds. In addition, there's a severe risk from heat. Lee County has a severe risk from heat due to an increase in "feels like" temperatures. A whopping 100% of homes in Lee County have a Severe Heat Factor®. Lee County also faces minor risk from flooding, major risk from wildfires, and severe risk from high winds. 

3. Arizona

An astounding 76,000 more people moved in than moved out of Maricopa County during the past two years. But, 100% of homes in Maricopa County face high heat risk. It's no secret that Arizona is one hot state, but the folks moving into the state face more than an occasional hot day.

According to ClimateCheck, in a typical year between 1985 and 2005, residents of Maricopa County could expect about seven days above 111.5ºF. By 2050, 27 years from now, Maricopa County residents are projected to experience about 41 days per year of temperatures over 111.5ºF.

4. Inland California

Among the 306 high-fire-risk counties Redfin analyzed, Riverside County had the highest number of homes facing high wildfire risk. In fact, 600,000 homes face the possibility of being damaged or destroyed in the next wildfire, and yet, Riverside County has experienced a net gain of 40,000 people over the past two years. 

5. Utah

Washington and Utah counties have each witnessed an influx of new people since 2021, despite the fact that 95.5% of homes in Washington County face high fire risk and drought. And Utah county isn't much better off in terms of risks. While 71% of homes in the county have a Moderate Heat Factor®, Utah county also faces a moderate risk of flooding, a major risk from wildfires, and minimal risk from severe winds. 

Why people are moving

While there's no single explanation for why people are choosing to move to high-risk areas, there appear to be at least two major reasons. 

Lower cost of living

Many who've moved over the past two years got in early enough to take advantage of record-low mortgage rates before inflationary pressures led the Federal Reserve to raise rates. It was the middle of the pandemic, more people were working from home, and they suddenly had the freedom to move to less-expensive areas of the country. 

Although interest rates have risen and the price of homes has skyrocketed in some areas, it's still less expensive for someone moving from Boston, San Francisco, or New York to make a house payment in Florida or Arizona than it was back home. 

The less a household spends on housing and everyday expenses like utilities and groceries, the more they have to invest for retirement or other future goals.

What you can do: When calculating the cost of living, be sure to factor in how much more you may have to spend on homeowners insurance.  

Focus on today

There was a time when builders were less likely to construct homes in risky areas. Perhaps for that reason, disaster-prone regions have been more affordable than other areas of the country. According to Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather, "It's human nature to focus on current waterfront views or a low cost of living, over costs that could rack up in the long run, like property damage or a decrease in property value." 

From 1900 to 1959, just 14% of homes were built in areas with a high risk of fire, and 37% in areas with drought risk. So far this decade, 55% of homes have been built in places with a high risk of fire and 45% in areas facing the risk of drought.

To understand the potential hardship of drought, look no further than Maricopa County. Redfin reports that the explosion in population has coincided with an increasingly dire climate crisis. Due to a lack of water, Arizona plans to stop issuing homebuilding permits in parts of the Phoenix area and will cap the number of new communities that can be built.  

Fairweather believes "the consequences of climate change haven't fully sunk in for many Americans because oftentimes, homeowners and renters don't foot the whole bill when disaster strikes." There's a tendency to believe that insurance companies and government programs will foot the bill for rebuilding. 

What you can do: Investigate the area you hope to move to, including how climate change is expected to affect the region. Unless you don't plan to stay for long, be aware that extensive flooding, wildfires, and excessive heat can all impact the value of your property. 

There's no corner of the world immune from climate change, but some areas are more prone to catastrophic events than others. While you can't base decisions solely on what "might happen," it doesn't hurt to factor risks into your next big decision, especially if it involves getting a mortgage loan.