Every time Bitcoin (BTC +0.71%) is showing signs of life, investors start to wonder how much the cryptocurrency could be worth in the long run. In the early days, Bitcoin didn't seem to be worth anything. The first known purchase of a physical thing with payment by digital currencies was a May 2010 order of two large pizzas in exchange for 10,000 Bitcoin. The currency surged to $1,000 per Bitcoin in 2013, stopped just short of the $20,000 mark in 2017, and soared to roughly $68,800 per coin in November 2021.
Bitcoin has come a long way from the pizza-based price of 0.2 cents per coin. At today's price of $21,230 per Bitcoin, Laszlo Hanyecz effectively spent $212 million on those tomato pies. So if the crypto's value multiplied by more than 10 million times in 12 years, it might seem fair to expect a million-dollar price tag within the next decade.
Many pundits and famous investors say "yes"
Reaching $1,000,000 per Bitcoin by 2030 is a pretty popular projection.
- Crypto-trading platform BitMEX's ex-CEO, Arthur Hays, made precisely that prediction four months ago.
- Famous growth investor Cathie Wood set the same target in April 2022.
- Serial entrepreneur Anthony Pompliano took the stage at the same Bitcoin 2022 event to say that Bitcoin could reach $500,000 or $1,000,000 in the near future -- but anything beyond that would require a social collapse and total meltdown of the U.S. dollar.
- In early June, MicroStrategy (MSTR 1.87%) chairman Michael Saylor doubled down on his bullish price predictions in a CNBC interview: "It's not going to zero. If it's not going to zero, it's going to a million because it's obviously better than gold at everything that gold wants to be."
It's true that all of these Bitcoin bulls have significant financial interests in the Bitcoin market. For example, if the coin ever reaches $1 million, the company's current cache of roughly 130,000 Bitcoins would soar from $2.8 billion to $130 billion. As a result, MicroStrategy would be a financial heavyweight with Bitcoin-based cash reserves comparable to software-sector rivals Microsoft and Alphabet.
At the same time, people like Michael Saylor and Cathie Wood are putting their money where their mouths are. If they are wrong and Bitcoin never replaces gold as the standard holder of long-term value, they could lose every penny of the massive investments they have made so far. Perhaps more importantly, they could look quite silly if their big Bitcoin bets don't work out as planned. Nobody wants to lose face that way, especially in an industry where a robust reputation earns you more clients and partners.
CRYPTO: BTC
Key Data Points
What could go wrong?
Regulators and governments around the world are still figuring out how to deal with these newfangled digital assets. Some of them may set up overly draconian frameworks for trading, transactions, and ownership of cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin. The domestic rulemaking effort is especially important to us American investors, of course. It'll take a couple more years before this particular source of uncertainty calms down.
Bitcoin certainly has a leg up on the crypto competition when it comes to disrupting the gold market -- but that future isn't written in stone. Other digital coins could come along with better technology, more secure transactions, and other unbeatable advantages. In that world, we could see another name grabbing Bitcoin's crown, challenging early investors to adapt or get left behind.
So Bitcoin enthusiasts like Michael Saylor and Arthur Hays could still lose it all. However, I think cryptocurrencies are here to stay, and there's good reason to believe that Bitcoin will remain a cornerstone of this evolving market. There will be volatility along the way and the current crypto crisis could last for years, like the last one did. That's alright. I'm in this investment for the long run.
All things considered, I think it's a good idea to keep some Bitcoin in your long-term investment portfolio. If that lofty million-dollar price target holds up, every $10,000 you invest in Bitcoin today will be worth nearly half a million dollars by 2030. It would be a shame to miss that opportunity, right?
