Weight-loss drugs have been surging in popularity over the past year. Even Novo Nordisk's Ozempic, which isn't approved to treat weight loss, has made for a hot trend on social media, with people showing off their results from using the diabetes drug.
And now, there could soon be another weight-loss treatment that consumers may be able to use, and it's from Pfizer (PFE 1.73%).
A potential competitor for Ozempic
A peer-reviewed study has recently come out on Pfizer's weight-loss treatment, danuglipron. And the study, which is based on phase 2 trial data, is encouraging. Patients with type 2 diabetes who took the pill twice daily lost an average of 10 pounds during a period of 16 weeks.
That compares favorably to Ozempic, which contains semaglutide. In its phase 3 trials, people who took the once-weekly injectable lost a similar amount of weight -- but over a period of 30 weeks.
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Key Data Points
However, there are a couple of things worth noting here. The first is that while the results were comparable, the doses were not. Ozempic's injectable is just 1 mg versus 120 mg for Pfizer's pill. A much higher dosage could result in more severe side effects for users. And the costs may be much higher as well.
Secondly, while Ozempic may generate a lot of the excitement from social media, it isn't Novo Nordisk's treatment for weight loss. Wegovy is a higher-dose version of semaglutide (2.4 mg weekly) and it has achieved some promising results for patients, who have lost an average of 15% of their body weight. And over a 68-week period, adults shed an average of 33 pounds.
Wegovy is approved for chronic weight management in the U.S. and it's the treatment that any weight-loss drug from Pfizer would most likely compete against.
The weight-loss market could be hotly contested
Since the dosing amounts are different, as are the time frames of the trials, it can be difficult to make direct comparisons between danuglipron, Ozempic, and Wegovy. It's possible that over a longer period, danuglipron may achieve similar results to Wegovy. And it already looks more promising than Ozempic. However, the difference in dosage is significant and is something patients shouldn't ignore.
The treatment is also in phase 2 trials, which isn't as far along as Ozempic -- it's already in phase 3. That means there will be much more data to come out and that could make it easier to compare danuglipron in the future. In addition to Ozempic and Wegovy, there's also Mounjaro (tirzepatide), Eli Lilly's promising weight-loss treatment, which has helped people lose more than 22% of their body weight and which analysts are incredibly bullish on, too.
There will be plenty of competition for Pfizer as it fights for share in the weight-loss market. The good news, however, is that there could be plenty of potential revenue to go around. Analysts from Grand View Research project that the global weight management market was worth nearly $133 billion in 2021, and until the end of the decade, they project it will grow at a compound annual rate of 9.7%.
Does this make Pfizer's stock a buy?
News of danuglipron's positive results should make Pfizer a bit of a safer investment. A big risk with the business is that with its COVID-19 vaccine revenue declining and multiple key drugs losing patent protection this decade, Pfizer may face an uncertain future. But with danuglipron, investors have a potential growth catalyst to rely on.
There's still some risk here, but for a stock that's trading at just 11 times its future earnings (the S&P 500 average is 19), Pfizer provides investors with some great value. The healthcare company has also been aggressive in its efforts to bolster its portfolio with the most obvious example of that being its plan to acquire cancer company Seagen for a whopping $43 billion.
Pfizer is a good buy, and danuglipron may be an underrated asset for the business in the long haul.
