Check out the new Threads. That's what more than 70 million people have done so far.
Meta Platforms (META 0.08%) launched its newest social media platform called Threads on July 5, 2023. Some are calling it the "Twitter killer." Whether or not that nickname is warranted remains to be seen. However, there are some striking similarities between the two social apps.
Is Meta stock a buy with Threads enjoying unprecedented popularity?
NASDAQ: META
Key Data Points
A viral sensation
Meta revealed earlier this year that it was actively working on a new social app. The company's comments gave strong hints that the new app would be a direct competitor to Twitter.
Within a few hours after its launch last Wednesday, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg shared that 10 million users had signed up for Threads. By the following morning, the total exceeded 30 million.
On Thursday evening, SearchEngineJournal reported that there were more than 55 million Threads users based on the number badges appearing on Instagram profiles. When Instagram users sign up for Threads, Instagram automatically updates their profiles with a number indicating how quickly they joined Threads. Zuckerberg posted on Friday that Threads had reached 70 million users.
Threads has already blown past OpenAI's ChatGPT as the most rapidly downloaded app in history. Some are predicting that the number of users on the new social media platform could soon surpass 100 million.
A money machine?
With so many users rushing to Threads, you might think that the new app will be a money machine for Meta. And it could be.
Bank of America analysts project that Threads could add between $2 billion and $3 billion to Meta's revenue next year. This range is based on Threads reaching 250 million average users with an average revenue per user (ARPU) in the ballpark of half of Twitter's ARPU in 2021 of $23. Both of those assumptions seem quite attainable, in my view.
There could be legal hurdles to jump, though. Twitter has already threatened to file a lawsuit against Meta for allegedly using its intellectual property and trade secrets.
It's also possible that Threads could be a victim of its own success. Bank of America's analysts warned that Meta could face antitrust actions related to cross-platform data use if Threads becomes close to the size of or bigger than Twitter.
Buy Meta stock?
Meta appears to have a winner on its hands with Threads despite some potential obstacles. Is this hot new app enough on its own to justify buying the stock? I don't think so.
Up to $3 billion in additional revenue certainly isn't chump change for Meta. However, to put BofA's projected Threads revenue into context, Meta generated total revenue of $116.6 billion in 2022.
However, Threads isn't the only factor to consider. There's more to the story.
Meta also has a big opportunity with artificial intelligence (AI). Zuckerberg talked about the company building "an open ecosystem" for AI in Meta's first-quarter conference call. I like this strategy. Look for the company to continue using AI to improve the monetization of its apps as well, especially with Reels on Facebook and Instagram.
Finally, I wouldn't dismiss the potential for the metaverse. Sure, many remain skeptical about Zuckerberg's metaverse vision. However, there could still be significant growth ahead for Meta even if that vision isn't completely fulfilled.
Meta's shares currently trade at a price-to-earnings-growth (PEG) ratio of 0.98. That reflects a valuation that's moderately attractive. It's entirely possible that the company could exceed growth expectations.
My view is that Threads won't move the needle enough (no pun intended) over the near term to make Meta stock a buy. However, Meta has more going for it than just Threads. I think the stock is a smart pick for long-term investors.
