What happened
After shares of fast-casual salad restaurant Sweetgreen (SG 0.46%) got tossed for a nearly 9% loss on Friday, they're bouncing right back today. Maybe not all the way, but they were up 8.8% as of 1 p.m. ET.
Friday's loss came after the company announced it had missed Wall Street's estimates for both sales and earnings, but investment bank Piper Sandler gave the stock an upgrade and higher price target today.
NYSE: SG
Key Data Points
So what
In a note covered on StreetInsider.com this morning, Piper Sandler analyst Brian Mullan upgraded the stock from neutral to overweight after the sell-off, and raised his price target on Sweetgreen nearly 50% to $19 a share.
Although Mullan said the company had endured "tough sledding," with unit volumes flat and foot traffic down about 1% -- and a $0.24 per share loss -- he argued that after the company raised prices, its profit margins look stable and investors can expect a "meaningful improvement" in the months ahead.
Now what
Sweetgreen just reported only mid-single-digit sales growth even after price hikes, a per-share loss 50% that was worse than Wall Street had forecast, and trailing free cash flow of negative $125 million. About the only thing the company has going for it right now is the prospect of improvement, but even that seems kind of bleak.
Management is promising $575 million to $595 million in sales this year, a 24% improvement over 2022, despite same-store sales growing only 2% to 6%. This implies strong growth both in sales volumes, and probably in price hikes as well, over the rest of this year. Meanwhile, Sweetgreen sees its restaurant-level profit margins expanding from about 15% last quarter to anywhere from 16% to 18% by year-end.
That's not going to be enough to turn the company profitable this year, however. Operating costs are going to eat up all of Sweetgreen's gross profits even if it maxes out every one of the goals it has set for itself this year. In fact, no analysts are forecasting the company to turn profitable through at least 2030.
So if you own Sweetgreen shares, your best move after today's price bounce might be to exit the stock.
