You've probably heard that bleeding-edge biotechs like Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA 5.82%) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP 3.08%) are working hard to develop gene therapies to cure intractable hereditary illnesses. That's entirely true. But for investors, that does little to clarify the issue of which company is more likely to grow over the next couple of years.
What's more, there's reason to believe that both businesses are on track to be quite exciting in the near term. Here's what shareholders are looking forward to with each.
NASDAQ: NTLA
Key Data Points
Intellia's near term looks good, but its long term could be vastly better
Intellia Therapeutics doesn't yet have anything approved for sale, but by the end of the decade, there's a very good chance that'll change.
The biotech's pipeline features a pair of clinical-stage programs for a pair of hereditary illnesses; there's NTLA-2001 for transthyretin (ATTR) amyloidosis, and NTLA-2002 for hereditary angioedema (HAE). Both candidates have the potential to be a one-shot treatment that substantially permanently improves patient's health, or perhaps even cures them. That makes them very exciting, to say the least. Between the two programs, the company could be targeting markets worth a combined total of $17 billion by 2029.
Importantly, it has enough money to last through the middle of 2026, per management. By that time, it aspires to have its phase 3 trials for NTLA-2002 wrapped up, and its request for approval to be submitted to regulators at the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). It should be initiating that phase 3 trial sometime this year.
Its $854 million in cash, equivalents, and short-term investments will be more than enough to keep the lights on for more than a full year, after which it may need to find a collaborator, take out debt, or potentially even issue new shares of its stock. Buying the stock now means getting exposure to the boost provided by such upcoming catalysts as well as the risk of dilution from share issuance.
It also involves taking on the risk that things don't go precisely as planned in the clinic, which is a common risk with all biotech stocks, so be prepared for a roller-coaster ride just in case.
CRISPR has a big catalyst in store, and a few smaller boosts may be ahead, too
For now, CRISPR Therapeutics sells just one medicine developed in collaboration with the venerable Vertex Pharmaceuticals. Its gene therapy Casgevy was approved for sale on Dec. 8, and it's indicated to treat sickle cell disease (SCD). Much like the candidates being pursued by Intellia, Casgevy is near-curative for the disease, and it's also going before regulators again on March 30 to see if its indication for transfusion-dependent beta thalassemia (TDT) will also be approved.
In the likely event that its therapy for TDT gets the go-ahead, it'll be a catalyst for the stock and yet another bullish sign.
NASDAQ: CRSP
Key Data Points
While there hasn't been enough time to gather much in the way of sales data about Casgevy so far, some analysts on Wall Street think that the company could make as much as $687 million in revenue in 2024, though on average they estimate it'll bring in around $156 million. That probably won't be enough to make it profitable, but as long as Vertex is helping it with the related expenses, the situation is sustainable. After all, it has $1.7 billion in cash and short-term investments and trailing-12-month operating expenses of only $477 million.
Nonetheless, thanks to its pipeline, management describes the coming 18 months as being "catalyst rich." Its three clinical-stage immuno-oncology programs may deliver data updates or advance into the next phase if the data allow, and it's also planning to launch a new trial targeting systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) before the midpoint of this year.
For now, the biggest risks are associated with its execution of the Casgevy rollout. If patients are slow to sign up or if costs are persistently higher than anticipated, it could be a serious headwind.
These are both good choices for growth
Provided that you're comfortable with the standard biotech stock risks, either CRISPR Therapeutics or Intellia Therapeutics could be a good option to invest in now. CRISPR is the safer choice as it already has a medicine on the market, and it will likely soon have another. But that means its upside is likely less than for Intellia, which still has quite a few milestones to reach before commercializing its first drug and subsequently becoming less risky.
If you have to only pick one right now, go with Intellia. Whereas CRISPR's debut with Casgevy is a major driver of its future revenue, it's also a driver of hype, and investors who bought in based on the hype may sell their shares just as quickly if the next year isn't as exciting as the last year was. On the other hand, people have barely started to get excited about Intellia, and if that starts to change soon, it'll be a bonus for those who invested beforehand.
