Earlier this year, Payload Research spilled the beans on SpaceX's revenue and profits in 2023. After combing through publicly available information on the privately traded company, the space market researcher calculated that SpaceX probably nearly doubled its revenue to $8.7 billion in 2023, and generated "significant" profits. (Payload didn't hazard a guess at a precise profits figure, but Bloomberg reported late last year that profits were on track to reach $3 billion, "adjusted" to exclude one-time items.)
Not long after publishing its report, Payload pulled its crystal ball out of the closet, dusted it off, and attempted an even more difficult feat: Calculating how much money SpaceX will make in 2024.
Image source: Getty Images.
SpaceX slows down (but still moves pretty fast)
Payload's latest report, titled simply "Predicting SpaceX's 2024 Revenue," takes as its starting point SpaceX's prediction that it will launch 148 times in 2024. Rounding that number down to a more conservative 140 missions (recall that SpaceX fell just a bit short of its own launch target in 2023 as well), Payload proceeds to break them down by mission type -- and probable revenue.
Here's how that looks:
Data source: Payload Research.
Add it all up, and SpaceX might generate $5.5 billion in revenue from rocket launches this year.
And yet, launch is only one part of SpaceX's business these days -- and not even the biggest part. Already, SpaceX's Starlink satellite internet business has become a bigger revenue driver for the space company. In 2024, Payload calculates that between selling terminals and providing Starlink service to its customers, SpaceX will rake in another $6.8 billion.
Mix in about $1 billion in extra revenue from assorted other SpaceX ventures -- demonstrating in-orbit refueling procedures for NASA's "Tipping Point" project, supporting a private astronaut Polaris Dawn mission, recording revenue for its work on the Project Artemis moon landing effort, and providing military communications services via its new Starshield division -- and Payload calculates that SpaceX revenue will pass $13.3 billion this year.
According to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence, that's more money than defense contracting giant Lockheed Martin (LMT +1.51%) generated from its space business last year, meaning that 2024 could be the year SpaceX truly becomes a giant itself.
How much is SpaceX stock worth (if you can find a way to buy it)?
That fact alone seems pretty impressive. Just as impressive is the wildfire success of Starlink -- which didn't even exist just four years ago, and is now SpaceX's biggest money-maker. It's still growing, and actually growing faster than SpaceX's launch business. According to Payload's estimates, SpaceX launch revenue is likely to grow 56% year over year in 2024, while Starlink revenue might grow 63%.
Most impressive of all, though, is how profitable this business has become. Taking Bloomberg's estimate at face value (with support from Payload's own description of SpaceX's profits as "significant"), it would appear that in 2023 alone, SpaceX generated an adjusted profit margin of nearly 35%. For comparison, Lockheed Martin's space business eked out an operating profit margin of less than 9% last year.
In 2024, therefore, assuming levels of profitability similar to what it achieved in 2023, SpaceX revenue of $13.3 billion could grow SpaceX's operating profits past $4.5 billion -- a year-over-year increase of 50%. Placed alongside the company's latest reported private market value of $180 billion, this means SpaceX stock is selling for a rich 40 times forward earnings. (Remember, these are forward adjusted operating earnings. Net income for SpaceX after taxes would presumably be lower than $4.5 billion, and the company's GAAP price-to-earnings ratio accordingly higher.)
What it means for investors
Does paying that valuation make sense for investors? Even if you could find a way to invest in privately held SpaceX, should you even want to?
I'm not 100% certain on this point, but based on Payload's latest numbers, I'm leaning toward the "yes" camp. For one thing, paying even 40-plus times earnings for a company growing at 50% seems no worse than fair value to me. For another thing, all the data seems to confirm that SpaceX is far and away the most profitable space company out there. And as SpaceX continues to evolve and build its moat -- with Starship, with Starlink, and most recently with its announcement of Starshield for the military -- I see little near-term risk of any competitors catching up.
"Top dog and first mover" seems to be a description that fits this company to a "T." And I, for one, can hardly wait until SpaceX confirms its long-promised Starlink IPO, and gives investors a chance to own the fastest part of this fast-growing business.
