Few organizations have their pulse on what's happening in the technology world than global IT research and advisory company Gartner (IT +0.55%). Its Magic Quadrant market research reports provide a great overview of where a specific technology industry is headed and who the main players are. To paraphrase an old TV commercial for E.F. Hutton: When Gartner talks, people listen.
But my focus here isn't really about Gartner; it's about Google parent Alphabet (GOOG +0.44%) (GOOGL +0.66%). Gartner predicts a 25% search traffic decline by 2026. Should you avoid Google stock like the plague?
NASDAQ: GOOGL
Key Data Points
A lurch in search
My first reaction when I read Gartner's prediction was to rub my eyes and read it again. I thought that perhaps I misread the percentage and/or the year. But I hadn't. Gartner really is arguing that a massive decline in traditional search engine volume is on the way soon.
I wasn't surprised, though, at the culprit the market research company thinks will cause the lurch in search. Alan Antin, vice president analyst at Gartner, stated in a press release, "Generative AI (GenAI) solutions are becoming substitute answer engines, replacing user queries that previously may have been executed in traditional search engines."
Gartner believes that AI chatbots and virtual agents powered by generative AI will disrupt the search engine market and do so with breathtaking speed. Antin thinks companies will be forced to reevaluate their advertising and marketing strategies because of this rapid upheaval.
He and his company aren't the only ones making such a prediction. Bill Gates said last year the development of AI-powered personal digital agents will mean that "you will never go to a search site again."
Gloom and doom for Google?
Such predictions seem to translate to gloom and doom for Google. In January 2024, Google Search commanded roughly 91% of the global search engine market, according to Statista. Its nearest rival, Microsoft's Bing, had a market share of only 3.4%.
Both Google and its parent, Alphabet, have other businesses. However, Google Search and related advertising services generated nearly 56% of the company's total revenue last year.
Alphabet's shares currently trade at a forward earnings multiple of nearly 22x. While that's not an especially high valuation, it reflects strong growth expectations. If Gartner is right, though, the tech giant's growth could be much lower than Wall Street thinks.
For search engine traffic to plunge 25% by 2026, the drop would probably have to begin soon -- either later this year or next year. Based on Gartner's prediction, avoiding Google stock like the plague would almost certainly be the best approach for investors.
Not so fast
Before you rush to sell your Alphabet shares, take a deep breath. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof. A statement that search engine traffic will plummet 25% by 2026 is an extraordinary claim. So far, however, there are no signs this decline is occurring. It's not just that there isn't extraordinary proof -- there's no proof that Gartner's prediction is being fulfilled.
To put it bluntly, Gartner could be wrong. The company has made wildly inaccurate predictions before. For example, in 2016 Gartner's Frances Karmaouzis predicted that more than 3 million workers worldwide would be supervised by "robobosses" by 2018. Um, that didn't happen.
More importantly, Google could benefit from generative AI. The company is experimenting with the integration of generative AI and search in a product called Search Generative Experience (SGE). CEO Sundar Pichai said in the Q4 earnings call that the early response to SGE is very positive. He noted, "SGE is creating new opportunities for us to improve commercial journeys for people by showing relevant ads alongside search results."
Will AI disrupt the search engine market? Yes -- it already is. But will Google adapt and evolve? Almost certainly so. Maybe the company won't be successful in those efforts. I wouldn't bet against it, though.
