Amazon (AMZN +0.53%) stock is on a roll. Up 75% over the last 52 weeks -- 3x the performance of the S&P 500 -- Amazon looks almost entirely recovered from its pandemic-related funk.
Amazon lost $2.7 billion in 2022, as the costs of expanding to accommodate pandemic-era home shopping came home to roost. But 2023 profits -- $30.4 billion -- nearly equaled the company's record profit of 2021 ($33.4 billion). And this year, Amazon looks ready to set a new record, with analysts polled by S&P Global Market Intelligence predicting the e-commerce star will earn more than $44 billion.
Think that's worth an upgrade? So does Truist Securities analyst Youssef Squali. On Wednesday, he raised his price target on Amazon stock by 11%, to $216 a share. That target implies 19% upside for the tech stock over the next 12 months.
NASDAQ: AMZN
Key Data Points
Is Amazon stock a buy?
Citing proprietary "Truist Card Data" that tracks consumer spending, Squali says Amazon's sales are up, its advertising business is booming, and "further growth acceleration at AWS" means Amazon will beat earnings when it reports first-quarter results later this month. That already sounds pretty good, with retail (Amazon's biggest business by revenue) and Amazon Web Services (its biggest profits producer) both thriving -- and some high-margin advertising money adding heft to the quarter. But this story is even bigger than that.
As Amazon takes tight rein on expenses, the company's posting improved operating profit margins (6.4% in 2023 -- twice 2022's tally), generating more net income. Squali expects these margins and profits to continue to improve "over the next several years." And he's not alone. By 2028, S&P data show, analysts agree Amazon could grow its earnings as high as $100 billion per year, a compound annual growth rate of 22%.
Now, inquiring minds can differ on whether even 22% growth is enough to justify Amazon's stock price -- currently 63 times trailing earnings. But so long as earnings keep growing, there's no reason to think that this already expensive stock can't reach Squali's target price.
