Big tech is known for its explosive hype cycles, and a potential breakthrough in quantum computing could create its fair share of millionaires. Research start-up Rigetti Computing (RGTI +1.44%) has positioned itself as a picks-and-shovels play on the opportunity -- similar to Nvidia's role in generative artificial intelligence (AI). But will this be enough to generate sustainable returns for investors? Let's dig deeper to find out.
Just around the corner -- for the last 40 years
The idea behind quantum computing started in the early 1980s, when scientists began discussing how to overcome traditional computers' limitations in solving the largest, most complex problems. Quantum computers were proposed as a way to perform calculations exponentially faster than their traditional counterparts -- potentially allowing them to revolutionize industries like drug discovery and materials science.
NASDAQ: RGTI
Key Data Points
To compare this concept with finding a needle in a haystack, the regular computer would have to search one straw at a time, while the quantum computer would be able to search all the straws simultaneously. It isn't hard to imagine how such a technology could help scientists much more quickly find effective medicines or materials capable of transforming daily life.
As of 2025, quantum computers remain in the research and development stage with very little commercial application. That said, analysts at Boston Consulting Group remain hugely optimistic -- expecting the technology to create up to $850 billion in economic value by 2040. If this plays out as expected, stocks like Rigetti Computing could surge.
A picks-and-shovels play on the opportunity
Founded in 2013 and going public by merging with a special-purpose acquisition company (SPAC) in 2022, Rigetti has a unique picks-and-shovels approach to quantum computing. The company designs and fabricates quantum computing processors and other types of hardware at its Fab-1 facility in Fremont, California. According to management, Fab-1 is the only dedicated quantum computing fab in the world -- potentially giving Rigetti a head start in this nascent industry.
Rigetti takes things a step further by offering Quantum Cloud Services (QCS) -- a platform where its processors are integrated with traditional computing infrastructure and made available to clients over the cloud. This concept could be a game changer for the technology.
Cloud-based quantum computers would allow a variety of businesses to take advantage of their massive processing power (for materials discovery or other tasks) without having to go through the expense of purchasing specialized (and likely expensive) hardware themselves.
Image source: Getty Images.
What do the numbers look like?
From a scientific perspective, Rigetti Computing certainly looks interesting. But as a public company, its survival will depend on being able to turn its exciting innovations into a viable business model. Third-quarter earnings demonstrate that there is still a lot of work to be done. Revenue declined around 23% year over year to $2.4 million, while quarterly operating losses jumped from $16.8 million to $17.3 million.
To be fair, research and development spending ($12.8 billion in the third quarter) is a big reason for Rigetti's cash burn. And the company continues to innovate -- with plans to introduce a new, more powerful system architecture in 2025. But how impactful is good technology if the market isn't ready for it? Analysts at McKinsey estimate that it could take decades for cloud computing to be ready for prime time.
Like many SPAC companies, Rigetti seems to have hit public markets far too early to be a viable investment. Even if its technology is compelling, investors will likely wait years (maybe even a decade) for a whiff of profitability or positive cash flow. In the meantime, the company will need to raise money -- likely by creating and issuing more units of its own stock, which dilutes existing shareholders. While Rigetti could eventually become a millionaire-maker stock, it is far too soon to bet on that right now.
