Uber (UBER +0.06%), the world's largest ride-hailing service provider, went public six years ago at $45 per share. Its stock slumped below its initial public offering (IPO) price in its first four years as the pandemic throttled its growth and rising rates squeezed its valuations, but it now trades at about $84.
Uber's business recovered as its ride-hailing and delivery services continued to expand; it divested its money-losing overseas and autonomous driving units; and it expanded its sticky subscription platform. Will its stock soar even higher over the next five years?
Image source: Getty Images.
What happened to Uber over the past five years?
Uber is primarily known for its ride-hailing and food delivery services, but it also offers business-oriented services along with bike and scooter rentals. It operates in about 15,000 cities across 70 countries, generating over half of its revenue in the U.S. and Canada.
From 2020 to 2024, Uber's number of year-end monthly active platform consumers (MAPCs) rose from 93 million to a record high of 171 million. That figure dipped sequentially to 170 million in the first quarter of 2025, but that still represented 14% growth from a year earlier.
NYSE: UBER
Key Data Points
Its growth in trips, gross bookings, and revenue stalled out in 2020 as the pandemic forced more people to stay at home. However, it recovered quickly over the following four years as it stayed ahead of its smaller competitors, rolled out new enterprise, healthcare, and teen-oriented services, and expanded its Uber One subscriptions.
|
Metric |
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
Q1 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Trips Growth (YOY) |
(27%) |
27% |
19% |
24% |
19% |
18% |
|
Gross Bookings Growth (YOY) |
(11%) |
56% |
19% |
19% |
18% |
14% |
|
Revenue Growth (YOY) |
(14%) |
57% |
49% |
17% |
18% |
14% |
Data source: Uber Technologies. YOY = Year over year.
Uber One's total number of subscribers rose 60% to 30 million at the end of 2024. The stickiness of that expanding ecosystem boosted its pricing power and take rate (the percentage of each booking it retains as revenue) throughout 2024.
Lyft, which operates in fewer markets than Uber, served 44 million annual active customers who used its ride-hailing, scooter, and bike rental services at least once during the year. It had 24.2 million quarterly active riders in the first quarter of 2025.
Uber's adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) also turned positive in 2022 as it divested its unprofitable segments, pruned its workforce, and trimmed its other expenses. It also turned profitable on a generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) basis in 2023. Its adjusted EBITDA nearly quadrupled from 2022 to 2024, while its GAAP net income increased more than fivefold (driven by a one-time tax benefit and the revaluation of its equity investments) from 2023 to 2024.
What will happen to Uber over the next five years?
Uber controls 76% of the U.S. ride-hailing market, according to IncRev. Global Growth Insights estimates that Uber controls 28% of the global market, while its closest competitor, China's Didi -- which Uber also owns a stake in -- holds a 21% share.
According to Mordor Intelligence, the global ride-hailing market could grow at a CAGR of 9.6% from 2025 to 2030. Grand View Research expects the global food delivery market to expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.4% during those five years.
Based on those estimates, Uber could grow its revenue and adjusted EBITDA at a CAGR of 10% over the following five years. If that happens, its revenue will rise from an estimated $50.6 billion in 2025 to $81.5 billion in 2030. Its adjusted EBITDA would increase from an estimated $8.6 billion this year to $13.9 billion.
With an enterprise value (EV) of $173.6 billion, Uber looks reasonably valued at 20 times this year's adjusted EBITDA. It still faces competitive and regulatory challenges in certain markets, but its brand recognition and economies of scale should fuel its long-term growth.
If Uber maintains that same EV/EBITDA ratio, its valuation and stock price could rise about 60% over the next five years. That would be a solid gain that would keep it ahead of the S&P 500, which has delivered an average annual return of about 10% since its inception, and make it a great long-term play on the ride-hailing and delivery markets.
