Data is the fuel responsible for powering Wall Street's proverbial engine. The only problem for investors is that it can often be difficult to keep up on a laundry list of earnings reports, investor presentations, and economic releases from the federal government. It's easy for something of importance to fall through the cracks.
For example, you might have missed the Aug. 14 filing deadline for Form 13Fs with the Securities and Exchange Commission. A 13F allows investors to track which stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and select options Wall Street's brightest money managers bought and sold in the latest quarter. In other words, it's an under-the-hood look at the stocks and trends piquing the interest of the market's most-successful fund managers.
While most investors are affixed to prominent figures like Warren Buffett, he's far from the only billionaire with an impressive investment track record. Activist investor Bill Ackman of Pershing Square Capital Management is another billionaire with a knack for generating outsized returns and finding a good deal.
Image source: Getty Images.
Typically, activist investors seek to establish sizable positions in a company with the goal of effecting corporate change/winning board seats and reaping the financial rewards of these actions in the form of a higher share price. They tend to run relatively concentrated investment portfolios, as is the case with Ackman at Pershing Square, where $13.7 billion is invested across only 11 stocks.
Pershing Square's 13Fs point to two very clear trends for its billionaire boss. He continues to be a persistent seller of fast-casual restaurant chain Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG 0.99%), and has quickly made another industry leader, whose global addressable market is expected to soar by more than 900% by 2033, his fund's undisputed top holding.
Billionaire Bill Ackman takes his chips off the table
Prior to the start of 2025, there had only been one quarter over an eight-year period where Chipotle Mexican Grill wasn't a top-four holding for Pershing Square Capital Management. In fact, it was Ackman's No. 1 holding in eight of the 32 quarters from Jan. 1, 2017 through Dec. 31, 2024.
However, it's become pretty evident that Ackman's love affair with Chipotle is fading.
Pershing Square's peak ownership of Chipotle stock occurred during the June-ended quarter of 2018. When adjusting for the historic 50-for-1 forward split Chipotle enacted in June 2024, Pershing Square once held the equivalent of 144,123,150 shares. It closed out the midpoint of 2025 with 21,541,177 shares, meaning 85% of this position has been sent packing over the last seven years.
NYSE: CMG
Key Data Points
To provide clarity, Ackman hasn't been a seller of Chipotle Mexican Grill stock every quarter during this seven-year stretch, but shares have been sold with some degree of regularity over this period.
One of the more logical reasons for this selling activity is simple profit-taking. Since Ackman first initiated a position in Chipotle in the third quarter of 2016, shares of the company have climbed as much as 700%, and are currently up by nearly 400%. When you double or triple the performance of the benchmark S&P 500, there's no shame in taking some chips off the table (pun fully intended).
But there are other warning signs that may help explain Bill Ackman's decision to reduce Pershing Square's stake in Chipotle. Specifically, Chipotle's comparable-restaurant sales are struggling for the first time in a long time. Sales at existing stores dipped 4% in the June-ended quarter from the prior-year period despite a 0.9% increase in the average check. This means Chipotle logged a nearly 5% dip in total transactions, which is certainly worrisome.
There's also concern about inflation, whether or not it's related to President Donald Trump's tariff and trade policy. The September inflation report showed food inflation at 3.2% on a trailing-12-month basis, with a notable uptick to food prices in August. Though Chipotle has historically had little trouble passing along higher costs to its consumers, a dip in total transactions suggests even its generally resilient clientele is feeling the pinch.
The final puzzle piece responsible for Ackman's relatively persistent selling might be Chipotle's valuation. A trailing-12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 34 isn't inexpensive for a company whose organic sales growth has seemingly stalled.
Image source: Getty Images.
Pershing Square's billionaire boss believes this industry leader will shine
Though Ackman has been a decisive seller of Chipotle Mexican Grill for much of the last seven years, he has done a fair bit of buying in other arenas. In particular, he announced in early February that he'd built up a significant stake in ride-sharing titan Uber Technologies (UBER +1.34%). Pershing Square's 13F revealed this position to be 30,301,161 shares, which accounts for approximately 21% of invested assets, of the midpoint of 2025.
Despite investors being mesmerized by the addressable market attached to artificial intelligence, it's not the only trend that offers a sky-high ceiling.
Based on a report from Stratis Research, the worldwide ride-sharing market is forecast to grow from $87.7 billion this year to $918.2 billion by 2033. That's a cool 34.1% compound annual growth rate (and a 10X opportunity) over the next eight years that Uber is at the heart of.
In an interview with CNBC, Ackman spilled the beans on a number catalysts that spurred this sizable purchase. He mentioned being a long-term customer and admirer of Uber, and praised CEO Dara Khosrowshahi on the job he's done taking a once cash-burning business and turning it into an absolute cash cow.
NYSE: UBER
Key Data Points
More importantly, Pershing Square's billionaire chief believes Uber is trading well below its intrinsic value. Though it does trade at a notable price-to-sales premium to its peers, its forward P/E ratio of 28 isn't egregious considering its sustained sales growth rate of 15% (or higher).
But there are likely other factors at play that Ackman simply didn't have time to address in his interview. For instance, Uber's market share lead may be insurmountable in the U.S. According to AutoInsurance.com, Uber accounted for a 76% share of U.S. ride-sharing in March 2024, with rival Lyft grabbing the remaining 24%. Uber's share of domestic ride-sharing has pretty consistently hovered in the high-60%/mid-70% range since 2017.
Furthermore, Uber Technologies is a diversified company. While it's best-known for its leading ride-sharing services, it also provides food delivery and freight logistics. These are cyclically tied operations that are going to benefit from disproportionately long periods of economic growth.
With Ackman holding the average stock in Pershing Square's portfolio for well over four years, investors should get used to seeing Uber as his top/near-top holding.
