📌 Top story -- scroll down for more updates
Earnings Season Arrives—With Some Surprises
5:39 pm
The flood of earnings reports is here—and investors got a few curveballs. Spotify (SPOT 0.80%), Robinhood (HOOD +2.33%), and SoFi (SOFI +3.26%) all fell after results failed to impress Wall Street, though the underlying businesses remain on solid footing. We also took a closer look at Bloom Energy’s (BE +1.85%) recent surge and whether the AI energy trade is getting ahead of itself.
Travis Hoium, Lou Whiteman, and Rachel Warren discuss:
- Spotify’s streaming pricing strategy and the ad-supported tier outlook
- Why Robinhood and SoFi sold off, and what it means for fintech investors
- Bloom Energy’s rise and the risk of an AI energy bubble
🎧 The Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing podcast drops daily after the bell! Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or other podcast platforms—or check out the Fool's podcast feed.
Closing Bell
4:04 pm
Markets were treading water on Wednesday as traders awaited after-bell earnings from four Magnificent Seven members: Alphabet (GOOG 0.23%), Amazon (AMZN +1.66%), Meta Platforms (META 0.08%), and Microsoft (MSFT +1.83%). The Fed held rates steady, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he’ll stay on as governor after his chairmanship ends, a dynamic that may limit President Trump’s influence on the Board majority.
- Iran Blockade, Oil Prices Rising: President Trump rejected Iran’s Strait of Hormuz proposal, signaling the U.S. naval blockade stays in place until a nuclear deal is reached, keeping oil prices elevated.
- AI Capex on Trial Tonight: Investors want proof that AI spending is paying off. Forward guidance on growth and capital expenditures will be the market’s key litmus test for each company reporting.
Alphabet Faces Investor Pressure on AI Governance
3:00 pm — GOOG +0.043%
Alphabet (GOOG 0.23%) is fielding pressure from a group of shareholders managing a combined $1.15 trillion in assets, who want more transparency on how the company governs the use of its cloud and AI services by governments for surveillance.
- What investors want: The letter, asking how the company assesses misuse risk, follows Alphabet’s rejection of a shareholder resolution calling for greater disclosure. Concerns center on Project Nimbus, a $1+ billion cloud contract with Israel, U.S. immigration enforcement work, and operations in Saudi Arabia.
- Why now: The Pentagon’s AI chief confirmed Tuesday that the Department of Defense will expand its use of Google’s Gemini model. Misuse of the technology could expose Alphabet to fines of up to 4% of revenue under Europe’s General Data Protection Regulation—part of what the Moneyball Hidden Gems primary database describes as "an escalating and extreme legal and regulatory environment" for the company, "with many matters carrying unquantifiable financial and operational uncertainties." Alphabet has a score of 40 for Governance in the database.
NASDAQ: GOOG
Key Data Points
Bad News for Novo Nordisk Investors?
2:28 pm — NVO -2.95% today
Novo Nordisk (NVO +3.88%) shares fell 3% Wednesday after Canada became the first G7 nation to approve a generic version of Ozempic, Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories’ (RDY +0.37%) semaglutide injection for type 2 diabetes. Health Canada is reviewing eight more generic GLP-1 submissions, with decisions expected in coming months. Generic drugs in Canada can run 45%–90% cheaper than brand-name equivalents.
- The moat question: Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic franchise has been a profit engine, but a wave of approved generics could pressure pricing power in one of its key markets.
- Lilly in the crosshairs too: Eli Lilly (LLY +3.24%) dropped 2.3% on the news and reports Q1 earnings before the bell on Thursday; GLP-1 competition will likely dominate the conversation.
NYSE: NVO
Key Data Points
Fed Holds Rates Amid Historic Dissent
2:11 pm
Rates stayed put, but the real story is what’s happening inside the Fed. Four officials broke ranks in the most divided vote since 1992 — and their pushback on "easing bias" is a signal that rate cuts may be further off than markets think.
UMG Doubles Buybacks as Revenue Flatlines
1:15 pm — UNVGY -1.8%, SPOT +2.0%
Universal Music Group (UNVGY 0.14%) announced Wednesday it will sell half of its 2.7-billion-euro stake in Spotify (SPOT 0.80%) to fund a doubled share buyback program. The move serves as a strategic defense against an unsolicited $64 billion takeover bid from activist investor Bill Ackman, who argued the market undervalued UMG's equity holdings. Despite a 3.8% dip in adjusted EBITDA due to a weak dollar, constant-currency revenue climbed 8.1% behind top sellers like Taylor Swift and BTS. By selling on its own terms, UMG retains control over the proceeds, which will also be shared with artists under a long-standing contractual commitment, rather than being fully absorbed into Ackman’s proposed acquisition cash.
- Non-Recoupable Windfall: A "Taylor Swift clause" ensures that a portion of the Spotify proceeds goes directly to artists without being offset against their existing debts to the label.
- Aggressive Undervaluation Defense: The board plans to launch an additional 500-million-euro buyback, signaling confidence that current share prices fail to reflect the explosive growth of K-pop and streaming royalties.
Today's Lunchtime News
1:05 pm — UBER -0.6%
Uber (UBER +0.96%) used its annual Go-Get product event to lay out an ambitious push into travel, hotel bookings, and AI-powered ride reservations, sharpening its pitch as an all-in-one super app. The expansion puts Uber in direct competition with Booking Holdings (NASDAQ: BKNG) and Airbnb (ABNB +1.32%) in the travel booking space.
- Hotel and AI features: Through a partnership with Expedia (EXPE +1.04%), Uber will offer 700,000 U.S. hotel options on its app, with Vrbo home rentals coming later this year. Uber also debuted an OpenAI-powered voice booking chatbot for ride reservations and a shopping feature that pairs users with personal shoppers.
- More super-app moves: New travel-focused perks include cross-border Uber One credits, curated tourist guides, in-hotel room service for forgotten essentials, and an Uber Black add-on that lets riders pick up coffee or food en route. The travel push extends Uber's diversification beyond ride-hailing into freight, autonomous vehicles, grocery, and even skiing.
NXP Paces for Best Day Since 2010
12:40 pm — NXPI +25.3%
NXP Semiconductors (NXPI 0.13%) shares soared 26% Wednesday, marking the Dutch chipmaker's best performance since its 2010 IPO. The rally follows a first-quarter beat where adjusted earnings of $3.05 per share outpaced the $2.95 expected by analysts. While peers like Nvidia (NVDA 0.24%) dominate the spotlight with GPUs, NXP is carving a high-margin niche in "physical AI" and software-defined vehicles. Revenue rose 12% to $3.18 billion as demand for automotive processing and data center infrastructure — specifically power management and cooling controls — hit new peaks. CEO Rafael Sotomayor now anticipates data center revenue to more than double from $200 million last year to over $500 million in 2026.
- Critical Infrastructure Play: Unlike compute-heavy rivals, NXP focuses on the physical constraints of scaling data centers, providing the essential secure controls and uptime hardware that keep AI clusters running.
- Price Target Liftoff: Following the report, Morgan Stanley analysts boosted their price target to $335, citing clearer visibility in the company's execution within the rapidly evolving automotive semiconductor space.
NASDAQ: NXPI
Key Data Points
Pershing Square Just IPO'd: Decoding the S-1
12:25 pm
Pershing Square (NYSE: PS) and its newly launched fund, Pershing Square USA (NYSE: PSUS), both began trading today as part of a single bundled initial public offering (IPO). PSUS sold shares at $50 each and raised roughly $5 billion, the low end of the company's $5 billion to $10 billion target range.
PS shares didn't raise any money on their own. They were given away as a bonus to PSUS buyers -- one free PS share for every five PSUS shares purchased -- and now trade independently on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Reports indicate the offering was oversubscribed, with institutional investors making up more than 85% of orders. Here's a breakdown of the highlights from the S-1.
Key Takeaways
- A small group of insiders will keep permanent voting control over a company that gets zero IPO proceeds.
- The track record and business economics are strong, but a recent shareholder lawsuit threatens a meaningful piece of revenue.
- Bill Ackman tried this same IPO in 2024, and it collapsed. The current version uses a free-share sweetener to get it across the line.
Starbucks Transactions Hit 2-Year High
11:10 am — SBUX +8.5%
Starbucks (SBUX +0.36%) shares skyrocketed nearly 9% Wednesday after CEO Brian Niccol declared the company’s 18-month turnaround has reached an "inflection point." The coffee giant crushed estimates with a 6.2% jump in global same-store sales, a dramatic reversal from last year's decline. Most impressively, U.S. traffic grew 4.3%, signaling that investments in store labor and a simplified menu are successfully luring back lapsed customers. Bolstered by this momentum, management raised its 2026 earnings per share forecast to a high of $2.45. While China remains a slow grind at 0.5% growth, the domestic surge suggests Starbucks has finally found the right recipe to justify its premium valuation and recapture market leadership.
- Operational Efficiency: Strategic store remodels and "surgical" labor investments expanded non-GAAP operating margins to 9.4%, proving that higher traffic is translating directly into bottom-line leverage.
- Pricing Power: Average ticket size grew 2.7% in the U.S. even as transactions climbed, suggesting consumers are increasingly willing to pay up for the "reimagined" coffeehouse experience despite broader inflationary pressures.
NASDAQ: SBUX
Key Data Points
Google Lands Classified Pentagon Deal
10:25 am — GOOG +0.8%
Alphabet (GOOG 0.23%) is rapidly filling the vacuum at the Department of Defense after the Pentagon blacklisted rival Anthropic as a supply chain risk. Pentagon AI chief Cameron Stanley confirmed that the DOD is expanding its use of Google’s Gemini for classified wartime projects, seeking to avoid overreliance on any single provider. While Google employees have voiced internal opposition to military contracts, the Pentagon reports that Gemini is already saving "thousands of man-hours" weekly in logistics and cybersecurity. This shift cements Google’s role as a primary beneficiary of the Trump administration's modernization efforts, even as Anthropic remains mired in legal battles to regain access to defense budgets.
- Diversified Arsenal: Beyond Gemini, the Pentagon is actively integrating models from OpenAI to ensure "the right technology for the right use case," preventing the software bottlenecks that plague legacy defense systems.
- Internal Friction: More than 700 Google staff members have formally petitioned CEO Sundar Pichai to reject classified workloads, highlighting a recurring cultural rift that could impact the company’s recruitment of top-tier AI talent.
Taco Bell Growth Defies Fast Food Slump
10:10 am — YUM +3.0%
Yum Brands (YUM 1.43%) surpassed first-quarter expectations Wednesday, driven by an 8% same-store sales surge at Taco Bell. The company reported adjusted earnings of $1.50 per share on $2.06 billion in revenue, outperforming analyst projections despite ongoing weakness at KFC U.S. and Pizza Hut. Net income jumped to $432 million, bolstered by the recent acquisition of over 100 Taco Bell locations intended to scale profitability. While global same-store sales rose 3% overall, the domestic Pizza Hut division remained a laggard with a 4% decline. Investors are now focused on a pending strategic review of the pizza chain, with private equity giants reportedly circling the business.
- Strategic Carve-out: Management’s latest financial report conspicuously highlighted core profits excluding Pizza Hut, signaling that a divestiture to firms like Apollo Global Management (APO +1.59%) remains a primary objective.
- The Value Playbook: To combat a 2% slide in domestic system sales, KFC is pivoting toward Taco Bell's model of aggressive innovation and entry-level pricing to lure back inflation-weary consumers.
Opening Bell
9:35 am
The S&P 500 is treading water Wednesday as a "perfect storm" of geopolitical tension and central bank shifts keeps investors on edge. Brent crude jumped 3% to $114 per barrel following reports that President Trump ordered an extended blockade of Iranian ports, throttling global supply. Meanwhile, Jerome Powell presides over his final Federal Reserve meeting before nominated successor Kevin Warsh takes the helm in May. While interest rates are expected to hold steady, all eyes are on the post-close earnings from Alphabet (GOOG 0.23%), Amazon (AMZN +1.66%), Meta Platforms (META 0.08%), and Microsoft (MSFT +1.83%). These titans must prove their massive artificial intelligence investments are yielding tangible revenue to sustain the market’s record-high valuations.
- Data Center Tailwinds: Seagate Technology (STX +6.67%) and NXP Semiconductors (NXPI 0.13%) skyrocketed 12% and 19% respectively after reporting robust demand for AI infrastructure, providing a needed boost to the chip sector.
- Hormuz Chokepoint: Shipping transits through the Strait of Hormuz have plummeted over 50% this week, forcing oil traders to price in a "war premium" that is now leaking into US gasoline prices.
Market indexes
Wingstop Grows Stores, Shrinks Comps
9:20 am -- WING -10.4% in pre-market trading
By Sanmeet Deo
Team Rule Breakers
The main story for Wingstop (WING 2.66%) is the declining same store sales growth as this morning they reported a decline of 8.7% sending shares down over 10% pre-market. Guidance of "low-single digit decline in domestic same store sales growth" doesn't provide hope. This is disappointing and hopefully we'll see some commentary in the upcoming earnings call about what is going on and how they are addressing it. Despite this, they are growing store count and generating income and cash. I'm still bullish for the long-term prospects of the company and believe this could be short-term headwinds.
Top of the Morning
8:15 am
By Nick Sciple
Team Rule Breakers
The Wall Street Journal dropped a big story yesterday, reporting OpenAI missed internal targets for weekly users and revenue. CFO Sarah Friar has privately worried about whether the company can fund its compute commitments, and the board reportedly is pushing back on Sam Altman's instinct to keep locking up data center capacity. Nvidia (NVDA 0.24%), Oracle (ORCL +6.77%), SoftBank, and other companies tied to open AI all sold off on the news.
OpenAI's response was the kind of denial that tells you the reporting is solid. Altman and Friar issued a joint statement calling any suggestion of a rift ridiculous and insisting they are totally aligned on buying as much compute as possible. When you have to call a story ridiculous, the story is usually closer to true than you'd like. In the words of Shakespeare, "the lady doth protest too much, methinks"
Here's what I think the market is missing. OpenAI losing share is not the same thing as AI demand slowing down. The Journal's reporting tells you exactly where ChatGPT's users went. Gemini took consumer share. Anthropic took coding and enterprise. That's a more competitive market, not a smaller one. The chips, the cloud capacity, the power generation underneath all of it gets used either way.
NYSE: ORCL
Key Data Points
TSMC Dumps Entire Arm Holdings Stake
8:00 am -- TSM +0.17%, ARM +1.35% in pre-market trading
In a notable shift within the semiconductor ecosystem, TSMC (TSM +0.60%) has fully exited its position in UK chip designer Arm Holdings (ARM +1.53%). The Taiwanese foundry giant sold its remaining 1.11 million shares through a subsidiary this week, pocketing approximately $231 million in proceeds. Executed at an average price of $207.65 per share, the sale resulted in a $174 million gain for the company's bottom line. Management characterized the divestment as a routine component of a broader equity disposal strategy aimed at optimizing its massive investment portfolio as it focuses on core manufacturing expansion.
- High-Level Portfolio Pruning: While the exit marks the end of a direct equity tie, the technical partnership remains intact as both firms are essential cogs in the global AI hardware supply chain.
- Capital Efficiency Focus: Clearing these holdings provides TSMC with additional liquidity to fund its capital-intensive transition to next-generation 2nm production nodes.
This Morning's Breakfast News
7:30 am -- ENPH -11.08% in pre-market trading
Enphase Energy (ENPH +3.70%) dropped more than 10% in pre-market trading, after posting a 31% fall in non-GAAP earnings per share for its fiscal first quarter, year over year (YoY). Recommended in Stock Advisor by Team Rule Breakers, the maker of solar energy technology saw U.S. revenue fall sharply – against a backdrop of tariff costs and oil-focused energy priorities. Tougher domestic trading was offset in part by international expansion.
- "Europe is increasingly becoming a battery-critical market": CEO Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman spoke of "solar and battery activations up healthy double digits across multiple European markets." But due to competition, he said "we are reducing our distributor list prices for batteries by approximately 10% in May, which follows a 20% reduction for microinverters already implemented from December."
- Management expects $280 to $310 million revenue in Q2: Following Q1 revenue of $282.9 million, we should see non-GAAP gross margins stable between 44% and 47% – as Enphase targets commercialization of next-generation products.
OpenAI Breaks Microsoft Exclusivity for AWS
7:25 am -- AMZN unchanged in pre-market trading
Amazon (AMZN +1.66%) secured a landmark win for its cloud division, AWS, by bringing OpenAI's frontier models and "agentic" tools to its Bedrock platform. This expansion follows a strategic pivot by OpenAI to loosen exclusivity with longtime partner Microsoft (MSFT +1.83%). In exchange for allowing the start-up to distribute models on rival clouds, Microsoft renegotiated its revenue-sharing terms and removed a risky clause regarding "Artificial General Intelligence" that threatened its future access. The deal is backed by serious capital, including a potential $50 billion investment commitment from Amazon and a massive $138 billion contract for OpenAI to procure data center capacity from the retail and cloud giant.
- Diversified AI Arsenal: Amazon is aggressively hedging its bets by hosting OpenAI alongside Meta (META 0.08%) and Anthropic, positioning AWS as the ultimate neutral ground for enterprise AI.
- The "Agentic" Shift: Markets are moving beyond simple chatbots toward autonomous AI agents, a high-margin software evolution that requires the massive scale only the biggest cloud providers can offer.
NASDAQ: AMZN
Key Data Points
ICYMI: Tuesday's Scoreboard
6:30 am -- NVDA unchanged in pre-market trading
Nvidia (NVDA 0.24%) was the subject of the latest Scoreboard video.
Disney's ABC Licenses Under FCC Political Fire
6:00 am -- DIS -0.18% in pre-market trading
Disney (DIS 0.68%) is facing a rare regulatory challenge as FCC Chairman Brendan Carr ordered an early review of the company's broadcast station licenses, citing an ongoing investigation into its diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) practices. The move accelerates renewals for eight ABC-owned stations that weren't originally due until 2028, forcing a filing by May 28. While the FCC cites potential "unlawful discrimination" violations, the action arrives amid heightening political tension and calls from the White House to penalize the network over late-night commentary. Critics within the commission have already labeled the move an "unlawful political stunt," signaling a looming First Amendment showdown.
- Broadcast Industry Jitters: This aggressive oversight could set a precedent for other media giants like Comcast (CMCSA +1.13%) and Paramount Skydance (PSKY +9.03%), which are also facing scrutiny under the current commission.
- Valuation Risk: While affiliates like Nexstar Media Group (NXST 2.26%) remain unaffected, any threat to owned-and-operated stations risks disrupting high-margin local ad revenue and core network distribution.
NYSE: DIS
Key Data Points
Brown-Forman Left at the Altar by Pernod
5:15 am -- BF .B -5.88% in pre-market trading
The global spirits industry remains in a sober mood as Pernod Ricard abandoned its pursuit of Brown-Forman (BFB 0.14%), ending hopes for a $16 billion powerhouse merger. Negotiators failed to reach terms amid a challenging environment where health-conscious consumers and economic pressures in the U.S. and China are denting premium liquor sales. While Pernod Ricard exits the bar, the door remains ajar for a $15 billion all-cash rival bid from privately held Sazerac. Investors reacted poorly to the news, sending shares of the Jack Daniel's parent lower as the company grapples with a significant valuation slide over the past year.
- Family Legacy Roadblocks: The Brown family's tight voting control and disputes over headquarters locations likely stifled the stock-heavy deal, prioritizing heritage over consolidation.
- The Wellness Headwind: Shrinking consumption volumes are forcing spirits leaders to choose between aggressive M&A or leaner operations to protect thinning margins.
NYSE: BFB
Key Data Points
Before the Opening Bell
5:00 am
Investors are navigating a high-stakes Wednesday as stock futures edge higher ahead of a massive "Magnificent Seven" earnings dump and Jerome Powell's potentially final Federal Reserve meeting. Sentiment remains fragile following reports that OpenAI missed internal growth targets, dragging down key partners like Oracle (ORCL +6.77%) and high-flying chipmakers Broadcom (AVGO +1.16%) and Nvidia (NVDA 0.24%). All eyes now turn to after-hours reports from Alphabet (GOOG 0.23%), Amazon (AMZN +1.66%), Meta (META 0.08%), and Microsoft (MSFT +1.83%). Shareholders are demanding proof that massive capital expenditures in artificial intelligence are finally fueling the top line, rather than just inflating costs.
- Monetary Musical Chairs: While rates should hold steady, the looming leadership transition at the Fed creates a cloud of policy uncertainty for long-term portfolios.
- The Revenue Reality Check: Markets are punishing AI hype that lacks hardware-driven results, placing immense pressure on cloud providers to show immediate ROI.
