Nvidia (NVDA +1.97%) is the largest company in the world right now, with a market capitalization of over $4.8 trillion. But we know it can go at least a little bit higher: In April, the company briefly topped $5.2 trillion in market cap.
The company reports Q1 earnings on May 20, and analysts are expecting another blowout quarter, with a consensus of $78.8 billion in revenue (up 78.6% year over year) and $1.77 in per-share earnings (up 118.5% year over year). Should you consider picking up shares of the chipmaking behemoth before its May 20 report?
Image source: Nvidia.
The surprising history
Although shares of Nvidia have risen 73% over the past year, not much of that growth has come in the wake of its earnings releases, despite its adjusted quarterly earnings beating analysts' consensus in all four quarters.
In fact, over the past year, Nvidia's stock has gone down after its earnings more often than it's gone up. In February, for example, the stock price rose 4% in the week prior to Nvidia's Q4 earnings report on Feb. 25, but plunged more than 9% in the two days following the announcement, more than erasing those gains. That's the sharp slide near the center of this chart:
NASDAQ: NVDA
Key Data Points
In November, shares had been trending downward when Nvidia reported Q3 earnings on Nov. 19, and they continued their slide, dropping 4.7% over the next week. And in August, shares rose 3% in the week prior to the company's Q2 earnings announcement on Aug. 27, and dropped 8% by the end of the following week. And remember, these were after earnings beats by Nvidia.
While timing the market isn't wise, recent history has shown that Nvidia's stock tends to go down immediately after it reports earnings. In fact, the stock has declined in the wake of seven of the company's last 10 earnings reports.
Smart investors will likely want to wait until after the company's May 20 earnings report to buy in. If history is any guide, they may be able to pick up shares at a slight discount.
