Nvidia (NVDA 2.00%) has held the title of world's most valuable company for nearly a year now, after first claiming it in June 2024 and then trading places with Apple and Microsoft.
That's a testament to both the power of the AI boom and Nvidia's own success in dominating the market for data center GPUs, the chips that have been the building blocks for the AI revolution.
In fiscal 2026, which ended in January, Nvidia reported 65% revenue growth to $215.9 million, and 65% profit margins, equal to a $120.1 billion net income. No company this big has ever grown revenue this fast, with such high profit margins.
Nvidia is no longer the top-performing AI stock. That mantle has been passed to memory chip stocks like Micron and Sandisk, and CPU makers like Intel and AMD, who are set to benefit from the era of agentic AI.
However, Nvidia is still easily beating the S&P 500 this year, and the stock recently topped $5.5 trillion in market cap, though it's since pulled back slightly from there. Nvidia will report first-quarter earnings after hours on Wednesday, and with the company's current market cap at $5.34 trillion, a strong enough reaction could drive the stock past the $6 trillion mark.
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What to expect from Nvidia's Q1
Remarkably, Nvidia's revenue has accelerated over the last two quarters, underscoring the strength of demand for its chips and dispelling any notion of an AI bubble.
In the first quarter, Wall Street analysts see its revenue growth to 79.6% to $79.1 billion, and adjusted earnings per share more than doubling from $0.81 to $1.77. That may seem like a high bar to top, but commentary from CEO Jensen Huang and reports from its peers have made it clear that business remains brisk.
There are now multiple bottlenecks across the AI supply chain, which are both driving prices higher and showing that demand is rapidly growing. Nvidia also sees gross margin improving to 74.9%-75% in the first quarter, reflecting higher prices.
Nvidia has a strong track record of beating estimates, so it seems reasonable to expect the company to do that again, though that won't necessarily make the stock go up. That will also depend on guidance, management commentary, and market sentiment.
NASDAQ: NVDA
Key Data Points
Will Nvidia hit $6 trillion? What history says
Based on Nvidia's closing price on Tuesday, the stock will need a 12% gain by Thursday to become the first stock ever to reach a $6 trillion valuation.
So what are the chances of Nvidia making a gain like that on the earnings report?
Nvidia's post-earnings moves have actually been fairly modest over the last year, as its results are no longer the surprise event they were when the AI boom was just getting started. In fact, over the last four quarters, the stock has not done better than a post-earnings gain of a few percentage points, and that seems likely to be the case this week as well, as a major surprise is unlikely.
$6 trillion will happen
While I think Nvidia is unlikely to achieve a double-digit pop this week, the company will eventually achieve a market cap of $6 trillion, and it's likely to come this year.
Nvidia now trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of just 27, which is similar to the S&P 500. Nvidia's growth isn't about to disappear. If it keeps executing, the stock has nowhere to go but up, meaning $6 trilllion may happen sooner than you think.
