The debate over Viking Therapeutics (VKTX 4.83%) will take another turn in Q3. As ever, you have to factor in what competitors such as Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk are doing, as well as the unique selling point of Viking's key drug, VK2735.
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The weight-loss drug market
Weight-loss drugs come in injectable and oral forms. The initially approved drugs, including Novo Nordisk's Wegovy (semaglutide) and Eli Lilly's Zepbound (tirzepatide), are injectable. However, Novo Nordisk now has Wegovy approved in an oral formulation, and it's quickly gaining sales traction. Eli Lilly's recently approved oral pill, Foundayo (orforglipron), is also expected to do very well; the Wall Street consensus calls for $1.2 billion in Foundayo sales in 2026, compared with $19.6 billion for Zepbound.
NASDAQ: VKTX
Key Data Points
Why Viking Therapeutics can grab market share
VK2735 is in Phase 3 trials for both oral and injectable forms. The bullish case rests on its potential to capture market share. VK2735 has two key advantages and one disadvantage. First, in both Phase 2 trials for VK2735, it demonstrated a significantly steeper velocity of weight loss than its rivals.
|
Company |
Clinical Trial |
Drug Name |
Formulation |
Peak Weight Loss |
Time to Peak Results |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Novo Nordisk |
Phase 3 |
Wegovy |
Oral |
16.6% |
64 weeks |
|
Eli Lilly |
Phase 3 |
Foundayo |
Oral |
12.4% |
72 weeks |
|
VK2735 |
Phase 2 |
VK2735 |
Injectable |
14.7% |
13 weeks |
|
VK2735 |
Phase 2 |
VK2735 |
Oral |
12.2% |
13 weeks |
Data source: Company presentations.
Second, VK2735 is also being developed as a dual-formulation therapy, and results from a Phase 1 trial will be released in the third quarter of this year.
On a less positive note, the Phase 2 data for oral VK2735 showed excellent efficacy but disappointing tolerability, with a 20% treatment discontinuation rate due to adverse events.
Where next for Viking
The bulls hope the Phase 1 maintenance dosing trial will demonstrate the efficacy of a dual-formulation strategy using the same drug. In addition, the Phase 3 clinical trials will hopefully demonstrate a similarly steep rate of weight loss, with better tolerability data in the oral VK2735 trial after dosing is adjusted.
Meanwhile, the bears focus on the fact that Viking is behind two much larger rivals in the race and still has to demonstrate better tolerability data for VK2735 oral in its Phase 3.
