Social Security beneficiaries could be in for a much larger 2027 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) than projections originally expected. But with five months until the official announcement, we can't say for sure how much more you'll get next year.
COLAs are percentages, so your benefit boost depends on the size of your current checks. Those collecting retirement benefits generally get a bigger bump than those on spousal benefits, simply because average retirement benefits tend to be larger than spousal benefits. But spousal benefits will see a notable increase as well.
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How much will the average spousal benefit increase in 2027?
The average spousal Social Security benefit as of April 2026 is about $986 per month. That comes out to $11,832 per year. This number ticks up slightly throughout the year as new beneficiaries who qualify for larger benefits apply. Still, the average won't increase significantly until the next COLA takes effect with the January 2027 payment.
Back in January 2026, The Senior Citizens League (TSCL), a nonpartisan senior group, projected a 2.5% COLA for 2027. This estimate rose slightly to 2.8% in February and held steady during March and April. But more recent inflation data has upended things.
The year-over-year change in the Consumer Price Index rose to 3.8% in April, causing TSCL to revise its COLA projection to 3.9%. This is a significant leap for a COLA estimate to make in one month, and it may not be the end of the line. If inflation remains high over the coming months, the 2027 COLA may come in even higher.
A 3.9% increase would add roughly $38 to the average spousal benefit, pushing it into four figures for the first time at $1,024 per month. That would give beneficiaries about $12,288 per year. By contrast, the average retirement benefit, currently $2,081 as of April 2026, would rise to $2,162 -- an $81 increase.
What to watch for as October approaches
Social Security COLAs are based on changes in third-quarter inflation data from one year to the next -- that is, data from July, August, and September. As these numbers start coming in, the COLA estimate will start to get closer to its final percentage. We'll learn the official COLA in mid-October when the government announces the September inflation data.
In the meantime, watching for changes in inflation will give you the best idea of what to expect from the 2027 COLA. If the inflation rate continues to rise, that's a strong indicator that the COLA will likely be larger than expected.
