What Is an Inverted Yield Curve?

By Kristi Waterworth – Updated Apr 16, 2025 at 11:44 PM

Key Points

An inverted yield curve indicates short-term rates exceed long-term, suggesting economic caution.
Historically, consistent negative spreads on this curve have preceded recessions.
Investors might prioritize short-term bonds for better returns amidst economic uncertainty.

Even if you don't invest in U.S. Treasury bonds or Treasury bills, understanding the inverted yield curve can help you better comprehend the economic environment in which you're investing. Although it's not a guaranteed harbinger of trouble, the inverted yield curve should not be ignored.

Loading paragraph...

Example of U.S. Treasuries inverted yield curve. — Image source: www.ustreasuryyieldcurve.com.

Loading image...

Loading paragraph...

Loading pitch...

Loading paragraph...

Loading pitch...

Loading paragraph...

What Is Inflation?

Yes, it means rising prices and more, but what causes it, and why is it important to understand?

How to Calculate the Price of a Treasury Bill

Discover the security of Treasury bills, master the easy price calculation, and understand interest integration.

Loading hub_pages...

But as an investor, the other thing to weigh and to really consider is whether that inverted yield curve actually means something besides where cash flow is best. That is, do you believe it's a recession indicator? If so, you may want to put your money into a more liquid investment, like a mutual fund or high-yield savings account you can access quickly and without penalty.

As with many economic indicators, the inverted yield curve is hardly one thing to all people. It can tell you where investor sentiment is but can't predict the future. Investors may see the clouds rolling in, but only you can decide for yourself whether that's thunder in the distance.

Loading paragraph...

Loading pitch...

About the Author

Kristi Waterworth has been a contributing real estate and financial expert at The Motley Fool, covering real estate, investing, and personal finance topics, since 2020. Kristi has been interviewed by various TV media outlets and podcasts for her real estate investing expertise – from residential real estate to digital real estate and everything in between. Kristi’s journalist career spans over 25 years, and she has written about real estate investing, homeownership, and home construction specifically for the last decade. She was also previously a licensed Realtor and general building contractor before the Great Recession and housing market collapse. She holds a bachelor’s degree in American history from Columbia College in Missouri.

TMFMaldivesBlue

@MaldivesBlues

The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.