Strategy (MSTR +4.31%), the tech company formerly known as MicroStrategy, currently has a market cap of $75 billion. It was valued at just $3 billion two years ago.
That massive rally wasn't driven by its core analytics software business, which booked just $121 million in revenue last quarter, and has stagnated. Instead, it was entirely fueled by its dedication to plowing more cash into building its Bitcoin (BTC +0.27%) stockpile. It started buying Bitcoin in 2020, and as of March 24, it had accumulated 506,137 Bitcoins at an aggregate purchase price of $33.7 billion.
Image source: Getty Images.
That hoard is now worth $44.1 billion, or more than half of Strategy's entire market cap, and makes it the world's largest corporate holder of Bitcoin. It's also diluting its existing investors and taking on more debt with its "21/21" plan -- a plan to sell $21 billion in additional equity and $21 billion in fixed-income securities, and use all of the money raised to buy more Bitcoin through 2027.
In other words, Strategy has become an all-in, single-minded bet on Bitcoin. Its stock could certainly skyrocket over the next two years if Bitcoin's price soars, but it could also easily crumble under the weight of its own dilution and debt if the cryptocurrency's price stalls out or stumbles. In the latter scenario, growing tech companies Nu Holdings (NU 3.33%) and Coupang (CPNG 1.39%) might surpass Strategy's market cap in the next two years.
NYSE: NU
Key Data Points
Nu dominates a fertile market for fintech services
Nu, which is based in Brazil and also serves customers in Mexico and Colombia, is the biggest online bank in Latin America. As of the end of 2024, its customer base more than tripled to 114.2 million from 33.3 million as of the close of 2021. Its activity rate (active customers divided by total customers) rose from 76% to 83% during that period.
Nu grew rapidly for two reasons. First, its digital-only model enabled it to expand at a faster rate than its regional brick-and-mortar competitors. Second, rising internet penetration and income levels in its core markets drove more unbanked customers to its platform.
Even today, the World Bank estimates that more than 70% of Latin America's adult population dno't use traditional banks. Therefore, Nu still has plenty of room in that market to add customers and expand its fintech ecosystem -- which already offers a wide range of checking, credit card, lending, insurance, investment, cryptocurrency, e-commerce, and business-oriented services. It's also been integrating more AI tools into its analytics tools, chatbots, and cybersecurity services.
From 2024 through 2027, analysts expect Nu's revenue and EPS to grow at a compound annual rate of 32% and 40%, respectively. That makes it one of the world's fastest-growing fintech companies, but it only has a market cap of $53 billion -- just 3.6 times this year's projected sales.
Nu's valuations are likely being compressed by concerns about the region's inflationary headwinds and the potential impacts of U.S. tariffs on Latin American economies. But if those headwinds dissipate, Nu could command a much higher valuation. Assuming it matches analysts' expectations, and also assuming that it trades at 5 times forward sales by the beginning of 2027, its market cap could climb to $131.5 billion. If investors get even more bullish and value it at 10 times forward sales, it could be worth $263 billion.
Coupang is an undervalued e-commerce play
Coupang, the Seattle-based tech company that owns South Korea's largest e-commerce platform, grew its customer base from 14.9 million at the end of 2020 to 22.8 million as of the close of 2024. It also acquired the online luxury goods retailer Farfetch last year.
NYSE: CPNG
Key Data Points
Coupang dominated the South Korean market by building out an infrastructure of first-party fulfillment centers so pervasive that 70% of South Korea's population lives within seven miles of one, then expanded its third-party marketplace to attract more sellers. More than 14 million of its customers are currently subscribed to its Prime-like Rocket Wow service, which provides faster delivery options, free returns within 30 days, access to streaming videos, food and grocery deliveries, and other perks.
To grow beyond South Korea, Coupang launched its marketplace in Taiwan, expanded Coupang Eats, and rolled out more Wow features to increase the stickiness of the subscription service. To stabilize its margins, it expanded its third-party marketplace, integrated more of Farfetch's higher-margin luxury products into its core platform, automated more services, and streamlined its supply chain.
Analysts expect Coupang's revenue to grow at a compound annual rate of 14% as its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) rise at a compound annual rate of 54%. But with a market cap of $42.6 billion, it trades at just 1.2 times this year's sales -- presumably due to the persistent concerns about South Korea's economic slowdown, political turmoil, tariffs, and the strong U.S. dollar. If it overcomes those challenges and meets analysts' estimates, and if the market lifts its valuation to 3 times forward sales -- in line with Amazon -- its market cap could surge to $133.8 billion at the beginning of 2027.
Should you invest in Nu or Coupang instead of Strategy?
Strategy's big bet on Bitcoin might pay off over the long run, but its stock could go nowhere if the cryptocurrency's price doesn't cooperate. If that happens, Nu and Coupang will have a good shot at overtaking the Bitcoin hoarder over the next two years.
